Not a day passes that I don’t receive email or some form of solicitation from a private money manager or mutual fund company touting their product or service telling me how well they have performed over the past 6 months or year. Instead of receiving history reports, I wish they’d send me exacting forecasts for the coming 6 months or year. Now that would be some useful information!
As I considered this latest edition of Market Update, nothing of substance I’ve read or listened to has changed my position on this market since the Presidential election. Geopolitical risks, Government and Corporate debt around the globe remain my biggest concerns and together or independently, will be the catalyst to disrupting world markets. Until then, the Bulls remain in charge.
I opened this update on the subject of past performance (history) versus precise near term forecasts. In the world of investment advice or money management, precision forecasting doesn’t exist hence most in my business use historical data, if for no other reason, as a guide to providing reasonable expectations of what to expect in the months or year ahead. Unfortunately, I’m seeing historical data being used more as a tool today by those who publish financial newsletters promoting fear of a financial meltdown among the investing public in an attempt to increase subscriptions.
History shows the current bull market has been in place since March of 2009. Current fundamentals, items such as manufacturing, production and employment etc. continue to strengthen thus supporting this historic bull run. As of this writing, the S&P is within 1% (+/-) of reaching an all-time high. Having said that, shouldn’t we be preparing for the next bear market to begin Q1 or Q2 of 2018? Here’s what I can tell you. Volatility is synonymous with the current trend and volatility is not going away. Expect day’s even weeks of “stock market heartburn” in the coming months. Do you remember August 24, 2015? That’s what history, in conjunction with current data, is telling me.
Until next time…………………..stay nimble be tactical and know what you own.
These are the opinions of Randy Miles, Sr. and not necessarily the views of Cambridge. They are for informational purposes only and not to be construed or acted upon as personal investment advice.